Trump told Iran he could ‘obliterate’ it. Is he leading the US into war? Here’s what you need to know
Tensions are flaring between the United States and Iran. US President Donald Trump has tweeted threats at Iran. In a tweet on 20 May, Trump said: “If Iran wants to fight, that will be the official end of Iran. Never threaten the United States again!”
Earlier in the same month, the US government sent an aircraft carrier and fleet of bombers to the Persian Gulf. Why? The US said it was a response to signs that Iran could be preparing to attack US forces in the region.
Both countries have issued public warnings. While the situation hasn’t led to a physical escalation, how did both countries reach this point?
In May 2018, US President Trump withdrew the United States from the 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal. The nuclear deal was signed during the Barack Obama administration.
The landmark nuclear deal that was signed between Iran and major world powers aimed to reduce sanctions on the Islamic country in exchange for reduced nuclear activities by Iran. The deal was hailed as a “historic breakthrough” by leaders around the world and more than 90 countries endorsed it. Iran’s minister of foreign affairs Mohammad Javad Zarif called it a “historic moment” and said: “Today could have been the end of hope on this issue, but now we are starting a new chapter of hope. Let’s build on that”
However, one of the clauses of the deal stated the US President, every 90 days, would certify that Iran was adhering to the terms of the agreement. While the global nuclear watchdog IAEA confirmed the Tehran was implementing the nuclear-related commitments since the agreement was signed, in October of 2017, President Trump announced the US would not be providing the certification.
The renegotiation of the nuclear deal was also one of Trump’s presidential campaign promises. On the campaign trail, he had described the deal as a “disaster”, “the worst deal ever” and a deal that could lead to “a nuclear holocaust”.
In May 2018, the US officially announced its withdrawal from the deal and reinstated sanctions on the country. Other signatories of the deal along with former president Obama criticised the move.
As the US withdrew itself from the deal, they also imposed sanctions on Iran. While the country itself stop exporting crude oil from Iran, it also sought to tighten the sanctions by asking other major importers of Iranian crude oil to find other sources. In 2018, the US had granted waivers to eight nations which allowed them to import limited quantities of Iranian crude. In May of this year, the Trump administration refused to extend the waivers. Iran called the sanctions illegal but for the US administration, it was one of the ways they hoped to compel Iran to negotiate a new deal which not only included the country’s nuclear activities but also its ballistic missile program.
The US also shored up defenses by sending an aircraft carrier and fleet of bombers to the Persian Gulf. They also evacuated some staff from the US embassy in Baghdad in response to a “threat linked to Iran”.
There have also been high escalations between Gulf countries and Iran in the same time period, the former of which have repeatedly accused the regime of carrying out attacks on their oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman. A number of tankers belonging to Gulf countries and even Britain were attacked. Iran has denied involvement, even though the US claimed to have video evidence proving the attacks were carried out by the Islamic regime.
Tensions almost reached a breaking point when on June 20, a US Navy drone was shot down by Iran. While Tehran stated the drone entered its airspace, the US rejected these claims, stating its drone was in international territory. The US reportedly almost launched a retaliatory military strike against the Islamic regime, approved by President Trump, but pulled back at the last minute, with civilian casualties being cited as a concern. Read about US Military threats to Pakistan.
While President Trump has tweeted threats at the regime, Iran has responded in kind. In May, Iranian President Hussain Rouhani threatened to withdraw the country from portions of the 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal. Rouhani’s threats came after US sanctions on its oil and banking sectors and the president stated if world powers do not hold up their end of the deal, Iran would also resume high-level enrichment of uranium.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has also made veiled threats at the US. While he categorically stated “no one is seeking war”, he pointed out it would not be too difficult for them to enrich uranium to weapons-grade level.
On July 1, the global nuclear watchdog confirmed Iran had breached the enriched uranium stockpile limit and six days later Iran announced that it had resumed enriching uranium above 3.67% concentration “based on our needs”. Under the nuclear deal, Iran is allowed to enrich uranium only up to 3.67%.
In response to Iran’s uranium enrichment, the White House stated “maximum pressure on the Iranian regime will continue until its leaders alter their course of action. The regime must end its nuclear ambitions and its malign behavior.”
Are the two nations likely to go to war? While threats have been made and Iran has taken steps that may cause the US to take strict action, those may come in the form of more sanctions. While many Republicans have applauded Trump’s strict stance on Iran, authorisation for war may require him going to the US Congress. The US is still suffering from their wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and President Trump is unlikely to receive Congressional approval. Iran, too, will have to burden their economy to enrich uranium to weapons-grade level.
So What Can We Expect?
The United States wants to coax Iran into a new nuclear deal and Iran knows it cannot currently withstand a war with the US. Strikes by the US will be counterproductive when it comes to bringing Iran to the negotiating table. With presidential elections to take place in 2020, the Iranian regime may hold out for a less-hostile president to beat Trump. Democratic hopefuls have thrown support against a war with Iran and shown a willingness to be part of a nuclear-deal with the Islamic regime.
While the danger of escalation still looms, for both states only a diplomatic solution will help.
