“There is no Purgatory for War Criminals. They go straight to hell.” These words were uttered by Sergiy Kyslytsya, Ukraine’s Ambassador to the UN in the latest UNSC meeting. They were directed towards his Russian counterpart, who was visibly in a very awkward situation.
We truly knew that we had reached the absurd heights of the modern era when Ukraine’s official twitter account tweeted, poking fun at how much of a headache it is to be neighbors with Russia through meme format. These words, however, were much more serious.
And much more direct.
A few months on, it is official, Russia has invaded Ukraine. Things have definitely taken on a more serious note as news of bombings in Kyiv and mass exodus from the city makes its way out of the country.
The situation had worsened these last few months and we had begun seeing pictures of old ladies and children learning how to use assault rifles in Ukraine in preparation for the upcoming Russian aggression. People are debating online whether the USA should get involved (and even whether the US has any right to do so).
This has definitely evolved into a US-Russia issue as underlying complexities involving NATO, the EU and the world at large have come to the fore in the mainstream once more.
But what lies behind this Ukraine-Russia problem? Why is the US involved? And Why should Pakistan in particular care about this issue?
The History of Ukraine and Russia
The tensions between the Ukrainian and Russian people stretch for a few centuries. Both the people trace themselves to the Ancient Rus (a polity where several tribes gathered under the Byzantine Church in the 10th century). This topic is still a cause for contention between the two nationalities.
Later on, in the 19th century, Russians mostly considered Belarusians and Ukrainians as ethnically Russian and referred to them as “Little Russians”. The Ukrainian language was banned as a medium of education in 1804, and 1876 the public use of Ukrainian literature and music was banned as well. There have been attempts to unify Russia and Ukraine as one nationality and ethnicity whilst Ukrainians have pushed back.
In the 20th century, despite wars and tensions, the USSR was close to Ukraine with treaties signed between the two as a communist system was established both in Russia and the Ukraine. In 1991, however, as the USSR was dissolved, Ukraine gained its independence.
Ever since then, Ukraine has had to walk a tight-rope between Russia and the west as it expressed a desire to join the EU and NATO whilst trying to fight Russian pressures not to do so. Ukraine is positioned strategically between the EU and Russia and it is understandably not acceptable for Russia to possibly have NATO forces stationed so close.
The tensions have escalated in the 2010s and continue to this day.
Ukraine and Russia in the modern era
In 2014, the escalations reached a new high with the annexation of Crimea by Russia that kicked off the Russo-Ukraine war that is going on currently.
The 2014 Crimean crisis was unfolding in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, in the aftermath of the February 2014 Ukrainian revolution, in which the government of Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych was ousted. Protests were staged by groups of mainly ethnic Russians who opposed the events in Kyiv and wanted close ties or integration with Russia. Crimea was annexed and then proclaimed Crimea to be a soviet state, appointing a Prime Minister and introducing a Ruble only economy.
Russia’s foremost demand currently is for the West to guarantee that Ukraine will not join NATO. Those on the side of President Putin argue that the Ukraine is culturally close to Russia and has Russian sympathizers but are pressured by the US and the EU to join NATO and move closer to the West. The accusation is that Ukraine will be used as a proxy for US and NATO so close to Russia.
In late 2021, early 2022 Russia deployed close to 100,000 troops near the Russo-Ukraine border and also established infrastructure like field hospitals with blood-banks as if in preparation for physical conflict.
Mr. Putin has complained Russia has “nowhere further to retreat to – do they think we’ll just sit idly by?” and accused NATO and the US of pumping weapons into the Ukraine to reduce Russian influence and progress.
“For us it’s absolutely mandatory to ensure Ukraine never, ever becomes a member of NATO,” said Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov.
The US on the other hand have repeated on multiple occasions that Ukraine is under Russian aggression and NATO forces are on alert to step in if “The sovereignty of the Ukrainian people comes under significant threat”. They have not made any moves to do so as of yet.
What that means for Pakistan
Unfortunately, the conflict is not a local issue. Central Asian countries have their economies severely intertwined with that of Russia, and possible conflict and economic sanctions on Russia by the EU and the US in response could be devastating for them. Pakistan has trade with both Russia and the US and an economic blow is likely if tensions rise further. Rising oil prices and the decrease in exports without a decrease in imports can result in a weakening economy with the dollar crossing the 200rs mark and inflationary pressures causing an ever-worsening situation for us in the future.
Also, Pakistan has been recently attempting to increase relations with Russia in addition to their existing relations with the US and the EU. Furthermore, due to its strong relations with China, it will make it further more difficult for Pakistan to choose sides.
And choose Pakistan because the global political structure shifts further into a bipolar system with Russia and China on one side and NATO countries led by the US on the other.
Conclusion
Politically, and Economically, conflict or even perceived future conflict is rough for the world in general and Central Asia and Pakistan in particular. Wary of NATO fortification and losing its influence in the Ukraine, Russia may continue to fuel anti-government conflict in the Ukraine.
The US might then have to assert its influence in “defense” of the Ukrainian people. The resultant conflict will cause economic troubles for Pakistanis living thousands of miles away.
It is important for Pakistan to consider the complex political and economic ramifications of taking sides in a possible future US-Russia conflict whilst also looking towards becoming less dependent on imports from other countries in-order to insulate themselves from an economic down-turn as a result.
