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Many US officials and intelligence officers have recently claimed that China has been underreporting figures for the COVID-19 outbreak; the CIA appear to be investigating the matter in order to gain a more accurate total of cases and deaths in China. This is not the first time China has been accused of misreporting figures related to a pandemic.  In 2003, the Chinese Health Minister had been underreporting the number of cases and deaths during the SARS outbreak and when he got caught, the Chinese Government sacked him. During times of difficulty and panic, propaganda, censorship and fabrication of statistics is rampant among all countries but how does China’s censorship compare to that in other countries during this coronavirus outbreak?

How China controls and filters information

The constitution of China states that the government can censor content to protect the country’s interests but, the government uses the power given to them to protect the Communist Party’s interest and maintain a certain level of control over the populace. As of 2019, more than sixty websites are completely banned while nearly all books, video games, movies and other online content seem to have some form of censorship. Censorship in China was not always like this. Before Xi Jinping became the Head of the Communist Party, China was not even in the top 20 censored countries list (2006 and 2012 lists) according to the Committee to Protect Journalists, but in 2015 and 2019 it was ranked as the 8^th and 5^th most censored country in the world respectively.

Since 2012-13, the Council on Foreign Affairs and Department of Propaganda in China have been regulating information, news and popular culture with much stricter guidelines that state what is and is not politically acceptable. Media outlets receive guidance regarding what can be published and if the content does not adhere to the guidance, the journalist or media outlet could face repercussions. Political scientists state that China’s censorship laws violate freedom of speech, cause a lack of creativity and create illusions of the world, but many do agree with a few of China’s censorship motives which includes the censorship of historical material that may present details regarding suffering faced by citizens. Famously, China censors the details behind the ‘Rape of Nanjing’ – a dark and brutal dot in the history of Japan and China.

Has China underreported figures for COVID-19?

This question cannot be truly answered because we would not get access to such information – only superior Chinese officials can access uncensored information. We can merely guess, estimate or conspire as to whether China has underreported figures and to what extent. According to Donald Trump, China’s numbers seem to be ‘on the low side’ and US Vice President Mike Pence expressed that it would have been better for the world if China was more forthcoming with COVID-19. But these statements do not mean that much, after all they are claims based on a hunch.

Based on comparison of data between the hardest-hit countries and China’s history of censorship, WHO epidemiologist Maria van Kerkhove predicts that number of cases and deaths in Wuhan are most likely to be heavily underreported in order to protect China’s national image and reduce panic within the nation, but the data from the rest of cities may not have been fabricated as much. Another reason for why China’s numbers appear to be misreported is that their death/fatality rate is much lower than that of most other countries with similarly aged population. However, Maria believes that there are logistical barriers which lead to underreporting of numbers. One of these barriers is the difficulty of performing post mortems on people that die during a pandemic, since there is high risk of spreading the disease and contaminating labs. Consequently, China was unable to properly perform post mortems on many people that died from organ failure or respiratory illnesses which may have inadvertently led to underreporting of cases or deaths.

Micah Zenko, a well-renowned American political scientist has been vocal about his disapproval of Donald Trump’s response to the pandemic. He has asserted that Donald Trump and his administration lack competence, reasonable judgement and leadership to deal with COVID-19 and to cover up their failures, they seem to be pointing fingers at China. China may have underreported figures, but it does not matter when it comes to how other countries prepared themselves and responded to the coronavirus outbreak. Countries like Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan saw the red light blinking and took measures right from the start, but most countries saw the same red light blinking and did not do enough until it was too late.

Could other countries be censoring information too?

Besides China, several other countries have been accused of misrepresenting statistics and to some extent, almost every Governments may be underreporting numbers through several ways to protect national pride, avoid panic or for other political reasons. This year was meant to be Election Year in the UK, but the Elections have been postponed to 2021 while the Elections in USA are also planned to take place this year. Hence, some experts fear that the ruling Government in both countries could tamper with data or underreport statistics to create a more positive or less negative image of their response to COVID-19 (to gain voters). However, it is unlikely that US or UK governments will be able to tamper with data since th media are actively reporting on coronavirus and many organisations are collecting data on-the-go in the West. Moreover, the Pakistani Government had been accused of initially downplaying COVID-19 in order to let the Pakistani Super League (PSL) continue without issues, but this accusation was quashed by the Government after the PSL was indefinitely suspended. Similarly, the Japanese Government had been rumoured to underreport COVID-19 figures so that they could host the Summer Olympics 2020 in Tokyo, but eventually Japan postponed the Olympics to the Summer of 2021. also see special Olympics summer 2019.

Some ways in which countries seem to be underreporting data include:

• Not testing enough or intentionally doing limited tests so the number of cases remain low
• Altering data for testing done through government testing centres
• Attributing deaths from coronavirus to other illnesses such as pneumonia or organ failure
• Not performing post mortem or post-death COVID-19 testing for those who die from other suspicious illnesses

How can numbers be reported more accurately?

The accurate reporting of COVID-19 figures primarily depends on the intent of each country to be honest. Besides that, governments need to do the following to gain more reliable statistics of COVID-19 in their countries:

• ‘Test, test, test’ as the WHO Director-General has stated
• Perform post-mortem COVID-19 tests on any death suspected to be related to COVID-19 (organ failures or respiratory illnesses)
• Step up production of test kits and make testing easier through drive-thru centres or mobile truck centres

What impact will the misreporting of COVID-19 totals have?

In the short run, misreporting of COVID-19 totals does have plenty of positives for example panic can be limited and contained, country’s image or the state of healthcare can be protected, and a total collapse of the economy or society can be avoided. However, most epidemiologists do not share such views. They argue that although panic can be contained for a little while, underreporting of epidemic/pandemic statistics will cause even more panic once the pandemic gets out of hand. Furthermore, the country’s image and state of healthcare may be protected for some time, but if the Government does not see the number of actual cases coming their way due to a lack of testing, the healthcare system will collapse once it begins receiving heaps of severe cases – many people will be refused treatment and would be left to die. Lastly, a temporary crash of the economy and halting of society for a few months to deal with the epidemic is much better than letting thousands or millions of people to die, since that would not only be a much more significant economic loss but a much larger social loss too.

As for long-term effects, misreporting of COVID-19 data will give rise to a lack of accurate information for coronavirus research in the future. Studying pandemics is important since we can learn from them and make changes to government policies, so that we are better prepared the next time a pandemic occurs. But if statistics are being incorrectly reported, then this would cause a major issue with the accuracy of research in the future and make policymaking for future pandemics much more difficult. As of now, experts estimate that the number of true cases is 10 times higher than the number of reported cases in any country due to various reasons such as inadequate or delayed response to the pandemic, asymptomatic patients (patients that do no show symptoms) and lack of testing. Many experts say this is just the tip of the iceberg. We can never know the true long-term effects of misreported statistics until years or decades later as the Spanish Flu of 1918-19 showed us.