With the 2020 elections in the United States just around the corner, the world is gearing up for another round of insane politics, plot twists, and surprises at every turn.
In 2016, Donald Trump won the majority in the Electoral College, making him the President of the United States of America. The news shocked and devastated some, particularly those concerned with the rise of populist narratives in the United States. All around, it was a sign that American politics are not just regional issues – with the announcement of making Mexico ‘build the wall’ around the US-Mexico border, all the way to increasing tensions with Iran. The person at the helm of the United States is a global leader with the capacity for change – good or bad – at an international scale.
Breaking down the US electoral system:
You might be wondering – what is this Electoral College? Why are the United States elections so complicated? To make things easier, let’s break the system down and analyze it little by little.
A striking difference between the United States and many other countries is the stronghold of two major parties over the voter base. Although other parties exist (and even gained some traction in the last elections) the vast majority of the voters will vote either Republican or Democrat.
Voters are diversifying:
Let’s talk voters – with an increasingly conflict-ridden political climate, it is only expected that the voter base will grow from the estimates in 2016. Since the last elections, one of the most interesting shifts to happen will be in voter demographics – with an increase in Gen Z voters (born after 1996), and a drop in Boomers (born between 1946-1964), there is no doubt voting patterns will change, according to a report by the Pew Research Center. However, like most places in the world, older people are most likely to come out and vote, so demographics can change as unexpectedly as on the day of the elections.
What’s expected ahead – primaries and elections:
Once initial campaigning happens, the parties start preparations for the primaries and caucuses – put simply, these are meant to select a presidential nominee from each party. This year, while the Republican Party seems set on the nominee Donald Trump, the democrat primaries are set to be far more entertaining, with many nominees campaigning, including a record-breaking number of women entering their name into the most lucrative race in the country.
Primaries and caucuses are expected to be completed by June, which then results in the (far more relaxed) party conventions – a formal celebration of the candidate. Then, the real work begins, the campaigning. The nominees set out to their strongholds and travel across the country, convincing voters why they should vote for them based on the platform they are running on. The presidential debates roll around, which is another opportunity for the nominees to appeal to the masses and explain why they deserve to be at the helm of the country.
Breaking down the Electoral College system:
On the 3rd of November, the elections begin. Voters come in, cast their vote, and share happy selfies on social media. People are encouraged to come out and cast their vote and complete their ‘civic duty’. Now comes the role of the Electoral College. This system may seem strange, so let’s go over what it entails.
In the United States, this system determines who wins the presidency, and comprises of votes distributed amongst states based on the districts, as determined by populations. Think of the electors as representatives from each state, to decide who the president is. The total number of votes across the country are 538. The catch with the Electoral College is that in most states, the candidate who wins the state wins the electoral vote. The electoral system in the United States is no doubt a complicated one, but it has roots deep in the history of the country.
The road to 2020:
2016’s upset at the hands of the now President Donald Trump has added an extra layer of surprise to the elections in 2020 – the democrats are eager to ‘take back the house’ as it were, and have control over congress and the coveted power to create legislation, one that Republicans have keenly used in the last four years to block democratic initiatives such as bills to improve minimum wage and tackle net neutrality.
As the elections draw near, Democrats and Republicans alike are gearing up for what seems like a fascinating election. In a country deeply separated by political differences, it will surely be interesting to see how voters see the last few years under Donald Trump – are they happy enough to keep him in the White House or are they considering a new face and newer policies?
Okay, but why should I care?
Now that you know what’s happening and what the elections will entail, here’s why following them is worth your time: put simply, the United States elections impact the whole world. This is why, it’s interesting to note, only a handful of candidates are speaking about their foreign policy, and not extensively. This may be a move to focus on domestic issues, as of course, that is where (most of) the voter’s interests lie.
For voters in the United States, this is a monumental event – everything could change, the kind of legislation being passed, the domestic and international decisions being made, and perhaps a feeling of representation in their governance. Because of the place that the United States holds in the world, it goes without saying that many people outside the United States, who have never set foot in the country, will also be impacted in similar (and perhaps even stronger) ways.
Making trade great again:
For example, President Trump has engaged in a trade war of sorts with countries like China, and placed tariffs on other stakeholders. While most agree that this was an erroneous decision, each candidate differs on how to tackle this going forward. And for people and traders living outside the United States, the candidate that wins can make the difference between trade sanctions and open trade relationships.
To fight Iran or not to fight Iran?
The war and conflict with Iran is another key candidate stand that can greatly impact the world. A candidate who opposes conflict with Iran for example, will bring more peace and stability to the region than one who wants direct conflict, which may rope in neighboring countries and place pressure on them to join in and do ‘their part’, as was expected during the War on Terror.
While the President has opposed the Iran Nuclear Deal (one of former President Obama’s major foreign policy achievements) and promises to use the full force of American power to stop their aggressions, many candidates from the Democratic side believe there needs to be a due process, one that they hope will take everyone back to the table to the Iran Nuclear Deal.
The climate problem:
An issue where a change in presidency can make a huge difference is climate change. Current President Donald Trump believes that climate change is nothing more than a hoax, invented to distract the United States. Taking an opposing stance to people advocating, Trump has vowed to leave major agreements and has even approved of measures to reduce regulations on coal and mining facilities, which would only increase carbon emissions.
(It is important to note here that climate change is not a hoax – it is a very real phenomenon escalated by recent human activities such as the burning of goal amidst other factors.)
Climate change is a global phenomenon, and so any measures taken to reduce carbon footprints in the United States will have an impact around the world. Voter bases recognize this too, and want to see change in how the US tackles climate change in the coming years. Most democratic candidates have plans to take the United States to net-zero emissions by 2050, if not earlier, a stark contrast to the president’s stance.
The Trump effect:
In countries like Pakistan, along with many more in the region, the person in charge of the United States also has an effect on local governance. The policies, the politics, and the vision that the American president brings to the table is what the world looks onto as an example – either good or bad – but there is no denying the influence that the US has on world politics. Countries will adapt, as they did with the current presidency, but the difficulty it poses makes their own policies difficult to create.
Since Trump’s election, there has been a rise in populist sentiments and elections around the world. Whether we like it or not, the United States is a global influencer, and what happens in that corner of the world will inevitably affect us all. Predictions, research, and polling can only do so much – so the world watches on as the candidates fight, and the debates happen, and elections go underway, with just about everything hanging in the balance.
